Both seats go to the polls on May 20. The last date of nomination is May 3.

In Rae Bareli, a traditional Congress stronghold which was won by its former chief Sonia Gandhi even in the middle of two Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) waves in 2014 and 2019 is waiting for the party to pick her successor.

Gandhi, 77, became a member of the Rajya Sabha last month and there is speculation that a member of her family will contest the pocket borough that has been held by the Congress since 1999, and was the only seat the party won in UP in 2019. Rae Bareli, along with erstwhile pocket borough Amethi, are waiting for the party to clear the air. And so, it seems, are other parties.

Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee spokesperson Manish Hindavi said, “The Congress high command will take a call on the issue at an appropriate time. The party has, however, begun preparations for the polls there.”

In Kaiserganj, the mood is not one of anticipation but anxiety. The incumbent, BJP leader Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, spent the last two years embroiled in serious charges of sexual harassment levelled by some of India’s top wrestlers. Though he lost his sheen as a sports administrator, he still holds considerable influence in the seat he won by 260,000 votes in 2019.

Seemingly unperturbed by the delay in declaring a candidate, Singh has hit the poll track in Kaiserganj, driving a long cavalcade that has drawn the election commission’s ire for taking out a campaign procession, with a cavalcade of 20-25, without taking the panel’s permission.

A first information report was lodged against him on April 13 for violating the model code of conduct.

“Brij Bhushan’s clout in the region could be gauged by the fact that not only BJP, but the SP and the BSP have also not declared their candidates from Kaiserganj LS seat. They are waiting for the BJP’s decision,” said advocate and political analyst Kaushlendra Singh of Bahraich.

This six-time MP enjoys a good rapport with the Samajwadi Party, whose chief Akhilesh Yadav had refrained from commenting on Singh even as the row dominated national headlines. Singh switched to the SP in 2008 after the BJP expelled him over cross-voting in the Lok Sabha over a no-confidence motion. He again joined the BJP before the 2014 general elections.

“We are waiting for the party to declare a candidate for Kaiserganj. Whoever is the candidate, we will abide by the party’s decision,” said Ram Harsh Yadav, SP district president, Bahraich.

“The party leadership will decide on this issue,” said Yadav.

Brijesh Pandey, the district president of the BJP, asserted that the local unit of the party will abide by the party’s decision. But others pointed to a worry. “Singh will switch over to the Samajwadi Party again, if the BJP denies him ticket,” said a senior SP leader. “The BJP is in a dilemma. It is neither able to distance itself from Brij Bhushan nor take him along in the Kaiserganj poll battle,” he added.

What is weighing against Singh is not just the unsavoury controversy but also the discontent among the Jat community – the wrestlers who alleged he harassed them were Jats – that is dominant in Haryana and western UP, two crucial regions.

“Assembly elections in Haryana are due in October this year and Jats constitute one-fourth of the total electorate there,” said a BJP leader, requesting anonymity. “The party also does not want to alienate Jats of western UP who are in sizeable numbers in several districts of the region where polling for Lok Sabha is scheduled on April 19 and 26,” he added.